Oilfield chemicals growth trend

The cut agreement to extend the main content

1. OPEC and non-OPEC issued a formal joint statement saying the participating oil-producing nations agreed to extend the cut-off agreement from March 2018 to March 2018 to the end of 2018. The scale of cut will not change in line with market expectations

2. Libya and Nigeria, two countries next year, the output should not exceed the highest level this year, Libya's output ceiling of 1 million barrels / day, Nigeria's production cap up to 180 million barrels / day of oil field chemicals

3. OPEC will hold its next ministerial meeting on June 22, 2018 and conduct a periodic assessment of the effectiveness of the production cut at the meeting

4. The third quarter of next year will not discuss measures to reduce output

Based on the above measures, Saudi Energy Minister Falih said it expects global crude oil stocks will be reduced to satisfactory levels in the second half of next year.

Past meetings affect the trend of oil prices

All three OPEC decisions have had a decisive effect on the international oil price trend.

November 30, 2016

OPEC announced a cut in production, international oil prices rose to its highest level in more than two years

December 4, 2015

OPEC continues to maintain its output ceiling unchanged, international oil prices continue to fall to a 12-year low

November 27, 2014

OPEC announced that it will maintain the upper limit of output and international oil prices opened a cliff-like decline

Production cuts this round

May 25, 2017

OPEC and non-OPEC main oil producing countries held a meeting in Vienna and decided to extend the joint production cutover agreement to the end of March 2018

December 4, 2016

OPEC and non-OPEC jointly announced that it will jointly cut 1.758 million barrels / day, since January 1, 2017 implementation

November 30, 2016

OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting announced that since January 1, 2017 cut 120 million barrels / day、

Output reduction is better

The output reduction rate of OPEC and non-OPEC participating countries in the reduction of output is relatively high, and the output of crude oil dropped significantly.

● The output of 11 OPECs involved in the reduction of production dropped to 29.83 million barrels per day from 30.97 million barrels per day before the reduction and the average yield reduction rate was 98%, making it the best OPEC cut in 30 years.

● The output of Saudi crude oil dropped from 10.54 million barrels / day to 9.95 million barrels / day, and the actual output was about 100,000 barrels / day lower than the agreement upper limit of 10.06 million barrels / day, exceeding the production cut.

● Compared with OPEC, non-OPEC countries, although less weight-loss task, but the average rate of reduction in compliance is only about 60%. Among them, Russia adopted a gradual reduction strategy. It gradually reduced its output of crude oil from 11.25 million barrels / day to 10.93 million barrels / day in the second half of this year and completed its commitment of a reduction of 300,000 barrels / day.

● It is noteworthy that in the current round of production cuts, Libya's crude oil output increased from 530,000 barrels a day to 1 million barrels a day this year, while crude oil output in Nigeria increased from 1.6 million barrels per day to the highest level of 1.8 million barrels this year / Day, offset some of the other oil-producing countries to reduce the effect.

Market rebalancing gradually realized

The export volume is another important indicator for testing the output reduction effect of the oil producing countries. The crude oil exports of the major oil producing countries have steadily declined, making a positive contribution to the market rebalancing.

● Output of crude oil from 11 countries dropped significantly from OPEC. The average export volume from January to September was 24.43 million barrels per day, down by 1.2 million barrels per day from the October 2016 baseline, down from the highest level of November 2016 200 million barrels / day.

● 11 countries have reduced exports both eastward and westward.

Saudi Arabia exported crude oil from January to September this year, an average of 6.86 million barrels / day, down 590,000 barrels / day, compared with October 2016 before the baseline reduction of 650,000 barrels / day.

Inventory fell, rising oil prices

Stockpiling and rebalancing are one of the major goals of the oil-producing nations to cut production together. Saudi Arabia also said that its production cutback will continue till the OECD oil stocks drop back to normal levels.

OECD commercial oil inventories gradually declined this year, down from 3.07 billion barrels in January to 2.97 billion barrels at the end of September, down nearly 100 million barrels. However, compared with the 5-year average, there are still 150 million barrels of difference.

International oil prices rose steadily, limited production and price received real results. In the oil-producing countries to promote production cuts, since the end of last year, the international oilfield chemicals overall upward trend, from the lowest level in 12 years.

· In 2017, Brent oil prices fluctuated between 45-65 USD / barrel most of the time. The annual average is estimated to be around 55 USD / barrel, up 25% over 2016.